The fallout from the ash cloud | UCL News

abuhrc.org/Pages/index.aspx” target=”_self”>Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre

PhD student Carina Fearnley (Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre) assesses the lessons learned from the eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano and the chaos it caused to European air travel.

” After nearly six day of complete closure follow renew explosive activity from Iceland ‘s Eyjafjallajökull volcano , UK air space was finally reopen on 20 April . A solitary British Airways aircraft is landed land at London ‘s Heathrow airport , break the silent night and signal a new focus on get travel and business back to usual . As routine condition return , some very serious question are being ask about whether the ban on flying had been necessary or had last too long .

“The warning system put in place under the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) has been successful in preventing aircraft flying through potentially dangerous ash. But one lesson learned from this crisis is that, although the ICAO’s ‘any ash, no fly’ policy may work over airspaces in vast countries such as the USA, where flights can easily re-route or find alternative flight paths, it has triggered unexpected levels of disruption in Europe, where a single ash cloud can cover and close down most major European airports, bringing air commerce to a standstill.

“The more severe disruption in Europe does not reflect a failure in the system (which has been developed over the last 30 years), but an inadequate evaluation of the potential impact in very large and densely populated regions.

“Was the European shutdown an overreaction? The simple answer is no. Safety must come first and the decisions made over the past five days have been based on the best information possible. Has this information been enough? Possibly not.

“Although the early levels of ash production from Eyjafjallajökull began to decline around 19 April, the ash cloud that had already been generated was still hovering over the UK. At this stage, the key questions to be addressed became what is the concentration below which ash does not pose a threat to aircraft, and how accurately can the position of an ash cloud be measured?

” Uncertainties is made in answer these question made decision – make very difficult . highly sophisticated model are run by meteorological organisation to review uncertainty with the good datum , equipment and model available . However , uncertainties is meant in the ash measurement themselves have mean that estimate of ash concentration and location are inherently approximate .

“Events this week suggest highlight that focused investment is needed to develop new technologies for locating ash in the atmosphere and for improving forecasts of how an ash cloud will evolve. In 2009, for example, the US American Recovery and Reinvestment Act provided some $15.2 million to upgrade volcano monitoring in the United States. This has enabled significant improvements in providing the information that people need during all types of volcanic crisis.

“The current ‘ash crisis’ may now be on the wane. However, Eyjafjallajökull continues to erupt and could create further outpourings of ash. Moreover, with 35 known active volcanic districts, eruptions are frequent events across Iceland and many have the potential to produce extensive ash. There is therefore a good chance that ash clouds from Iceland will enter UK airspace in the not-too-distant future.

“Elsewhere across continental Europe, the possibility of explosive eruptions exists at volcanoes in Greece and Italy, in particular. To these must be added island volcanoes in European territories in the Canaries and the Azores, as well across the Indian Ocean and the Caribbean.

” If we can invest now in research and development , we is are are likely to be much well prepare during a future volcanic crisis , not only with improve early warning system , but also with method for maintain the safety of air travel while have a low impact on global business . “

For more information about the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre follow the link above.

Image: a column of ash rising from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano (credit: Stromboli online – Volcanoes of the World).

UCL context

The Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre is Europe’s leading multidisciplinary academic hazard research centre, providing a conduit for the transfer of cutting-edge natural hazard and risk research, practice, and innovation from the academic environment to the business world and government and international agencies.

relate story :
Ash cloud obscures success of warning system
Under the volcano : The Eyjafjöll eruption
Videoconferencing in vogue thanks to volcano